{
  "schema": "pick6labs-weekly-review-1",
  "season": 2026,
  "seasonType": 2,
  "week": 8,
  "publishedDate": "2026-11-03",
  "publisher": "Pick6Labs",
  "scope": "Frozen retrospective review; not a current quote or prospective backtest",
  "methods": "Winner: selected team equals final winner. Favorite: sign of locked market_home_margin. Spread: selected team score margin plus its locked line. Total: final sum relative to locked line and published side. Ties/pushes excluded from win rate.",
  "games": [
    {
      "id": "401873023",
      "matchup": "CAR @ GB",
      "pick": "GB",
      "probability": 73.4,
      "correct": true,
      "actualWinner": "GB",
      "homeScore": 27,
      "awayScore": 19,
      "favorite": "GB",
      "favoriteCorrect": true,
      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": false,
      "independentPick": "GB",
      "independentCorrect": true,
      "forecastHomeMargin": 9.4,
      "actualHomeMargin": 8,
      "marginError": 1.4,
      "marketMarginError": -4.5,
      "spread": "WIN",
      "total": "WIN",
      "totalPick": "UNDER",
      "projectedTotal": 45.2,
      "actualTotal": 46,
      "home": "GB",
      "away": "CAR",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-30T00:15Z",
      "capturedAt": "2026-10-29T23:15:00+00:00",
      "cutoffPolicy": "final_60m",
      "versionId": 49334,
      "inputHash": "bc85b120848d57c5b24d1107778a6efd80c91c77858047d4900d605681823503",
      "modelHash": "edd26261cae5b13bc1922b3e9c6054aeb07a3bf745d59fd7941f21e361d5d623",
      "projectedScore": {
        "away": 17,
        "home": 27
      },
      "lockedHomeMargin": 3.5,
      "spreadPickTeam": "GB",
      "selectedSpread": -3.5,
      "totalLine": 47.5
    },
    {
      "id": "401873026",
      "matchup": "BAL @ BUF",
      "pick": "BUF",
      "probability": 76.1,
      "correct": true,
      "actualWinner": "BUF",
      "homeScore": 36,
      "awayScore": 10,
      "favorite": "BUF",
      "favoriteCorrect": true,
      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": false,
      "independentPick": "BUF",
      "independentCorrect": true,
      "forecastHomeMargin": 10.9,
      "actualHomeMargin": 26,
      "marginError": -15.1,
      "marketMarginError": -23.0,
      "spread": "WIN",
      "total": "WIN",
      "totalPick": "UNDER",
      "projectedTotal": 50.4,
      "actualTotal": 46,
      "home": "BUF",
      "away": "BAL",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00Z",
      "capturedAt": "2026-11-01T17:00:00+00:00",
      "cutoffPolicy": "final_60m",
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      "modelHash": "f1f4a52b83cef8cd1ed72598d88178119517a985be9c0158c435f0d3b53d99d2",
      "projectedScore": {
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        "home": 31
      },
      "lockedHomeMargin": 3.0,
      "spreadPickTeam": "BUF",
      "selectedSpread": -3.0,
      "totalLine": 54.5
    },
    {
      "id": "401873031",
      "matchup": "TEN @ CIN",
      "pick": "CIN",
      "probability": 92.5,
      "correct": true,
      "actualWinner": "CIN",
      "homeScore": 43,
      "awayScore": 36,
      "favorite": "CIN",
      "favoriteCorrect": true,
      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": false,
      "independentPick": "CIN",
      "independentCorrect": true,
      "forecastHomeMargin": 24.5,
      "actualHomeMargin": 7,
      "marginError": 17.5,
      "marketMarginError": 6.5,
      "spread": "LOSS",
      "total": "LOSS",
      "totalPick": "UNDER",
      "projectedTotal": 43.9,
      "actualTotal": 79,
      "home": "CIN",
      "away": "TEN",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00Z",
      "capturedAt": "2026-11-01T17:00:00+00:00",
      "cutoffPolicy": "final_60m",
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      "projectedScore": {
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        "home": 35
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      "lockedHomeMargin": 13.5,
      "spreadPickTeam": "CIN",
      "selectedSpread": -13.5,
      "totalLine": 45.5
    },
    {
      "id": "401873024",
      "matchup": "ARI @ DAL",
      "pick": "DAL",
      "probability": 84.3,
      "correct": false,
      "actualWinner": "ARI",
      "homeScore": 30,
      "awayScore": 33,
      "favorite": "DAL",
      "favoriteCorrect": false,
      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": false,
      "independentPick": "DAL",
      "independentCorrect": false,
      "forecastHomeMargin": 15.7,
      "actualHomeMargin": -3,
      "marginError": 18.7,
      "marketMarginError": 10.0,
      "spread": "LOSS",
      "total": "LOSS",
      "totalPick": "UNDER",
      "projectedTotal": 49.9,
      "actualTotal": 63,
      "home": "DAL",
      "away": "ARI",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00Z",
      "capturedAt": "2026-11-01T17:00:00+00:00",
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      "projectedScore": {
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      "lockedHomeMargin": 7.0,
      "spreadPickTeam": "DAL",
      "selectedSpread": -7.0,
      "totalLine": 54.5
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    {
      "id": "401873030",
      "matchup": "MIN @ DET",
      "pick": "MIN",
      "probability": 53.9,
      "correct": false,
      "actualWinner": "DET",
      "homeScore": 19,
      "awayScore": 15,
      "favorite": "DET",
      "favoriteCorrect": true,
      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": true,
      "independentPick": "MIN",
      "independentCorrect": false,
      "forecastHomeMargin": -1.4,
      "actualHomeMargin": 4,
      "marginError": -5.4,
      "marketMarginError": -1.0,
      "spread": "LOSS",
      "total": "WIN",
      "totalPick": "UNDER",
      "projectedTotal": 43.6,
      "actualTotal": 34,
      "home": "DET",
      "away": "MIN",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00Z",
      "capturedAt": "2026-11-01T17:00:00+00:00",
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      "projectedScore": {
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        "home": 21
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      "lockedHomeMargin": 3.0,
      "spreadPickTeam": "MIN",
      "selectedSpread": 3.0,
      "totalLine": 46.5
    },
    {
      "id": "401873029",
      "matchup": "LV @ NYJ",
      "pick": "NYJ",
      "probability": 50.6,
      "correct": false,
      "actualWinner": "LV",
      "homeScore": 33,
      "awayScore": 38,
      "favorite": "NYJ",
      "favoriteCorrect": false,
      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": false,
      "independentPick": "LV",
      "independentCorrect": true,
      "forecastHomeMargin": 0.2,
      "actualHomeMargin": -5,
      "marginError": 5.2,
      "marketMarginError": 6.5,
      "spread": "WIN",
      "total": "LOSS",
      "totalPick": "UNDER",
      "projectedTotal": 44.4,
      "actualTotal": 71,
      "home": "NYJ",
      "away": "LV",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00Z",
      "capturedAt": "2026-11-01T17:00:00+00:00",
      "cutoffPolicy": "final_60m",
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      "projectedScore": {
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        "home": 24
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      "lockedHomeMargin": 1.5,
      "spreadPickTeam": "LV",
      "selectedSpread": 1.5,
      "totalLine": 46.5
    },
    {
      "id": "401873027",
      "matchup": "CLE @ PIT",
      "pick": "PIT",
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      "correct": true,
      "actualWinner": "PIT",
      "homeScore": 27,
      "awayScore": 6,
      "favorite": "PIT",
      "favoriteCorrect": true,
      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": false,
      "independentPick": "PIT",
      "independentCorrect": true,
      "forecastHomeMargin": 9.0,
      "actualHomeMargin": 21,
      "marginError": -12.0,
      "marketMarginError": -17.5,
      "spread": "WIN",
      "total": "LOSS",
      "totalPick": "OVER",
      "projectedTotal": 40.8,
      "actualTotal": 33,
      "home": "PIT",
      "away": "CLE",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00Z",
      "capturedAt": "2026-11-01T17:00:00+00:00",
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      "projectedScore": {
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      "spreadPickTeam": "PIT",
      "selectedSpread": -3.5,
      "totalLine": 38.5
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    {
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      "matchup": "ATL @ TB",
      "pick": "TB",
      "probability": 51.0,
      "correct": true,
      "actualWinner": "TB",
      "homeScore": 16,
      "awayScore": 0,
      "favorite": "TB",
      "favoriteCorrect": true,
      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": false,
      "independentPick": "TB",
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      "forecastHomeMargin": 0.4,
      "actualHomeMargin": 16,
      "marginError": -15.6,
      "marketMarginError": -14.5,
      "spread": "LOSS",
      "total": "LOSS",
      "totalPick": "OVER",
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      "actualTotal": 16,
      "home": "TB",
      "away": "ATL",
      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00Z",
      "capturedAt": "2026-11-01T17:00:00+00:00",
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      "totalLine": 43.5
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    {
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      "matchup": "IND @ JAX",
      "pick": "JAX",
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      "correct": true,
      "actualWinner": "JAX",
      "homeScore": 42,
      "awayScore": 7,
      "favorite": "JAX",
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      "favoriteSource": "locked_market_home_margin",
      "underdogPick": false,
      "independentPick": "JAX",
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      "forecastHomeMargin": 16.5,
      "actualHomeMargin": 35,
      "marginError": -18.5,
      "marketMarginError": -25.0,
      "spread": "WIN",
      "total": "WIN",
      "totalPick": "OVER",
      "projectedTotal": 45.9,
      "actualTotal": 49,
      "home": "JAX",
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      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T18:00Z",
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    {
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      "pick": "LAR",
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      "homeScore": 24,
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      "spread": "WIN",
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      "totalPick": "UNDER",
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      "kickoff": "2026-11-01T21:05Z",
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      "total": "LOSS",
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      "spread": "LOSS",
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      "spread": "LOSS",
      "total": "LOSS",
      "totalPick": "OVER",
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      "kickoff": "2026-11-02T01:20Z",
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      "spread": "LOSS",
      "total": "LOSS",
      "totalPick": "UNDER",
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      "kickoff": "2026-11-03T01:15Z",
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