NFL analytics: methods & reader guides
Learn how to interpret projections, verify source context and recognize missing evidence. These site-authored, AI-assisted guides include clearly labeled examples; they are not independently peer-reviewed studies.
Reading EPA without mistaking it for a guaranteed prediction
A practical guide to situational efficiency, aggregation choices and the limits of a team comparison.
- EPA describes a change in expected scoring value, not points guaranteed on the next drive.
- A comparison needs the same season, play filters and source definition.
- A player’s box-score OVR is not an EPA or film grade.
Practical analytical guides
9 guidesA projected score is not an outcome distribution
Understand win probability, spread coverage, pushes and what simulation counts can—and cannot—prove.
Sacks, pressures and the evidence a quarterback comparison needs
Avoid attributing a sack total to one player when the source does not measure pressure or blocking responsibility.
Reading a line move without inventing who caused it
Separate an observed price change from an explanation about betting volume, professional action or model value.
A weather forecast needs a venue, kickoff time and uncertainty
Check roof status, observation age and sustained wind versus gusts before interpreting an environmental adjustment.
Red-zone rates: useful context, small denominators
Read trips, touchdowns and opportunities together before turning a recent percentage into a forecast.
Short-week rest is context, not a measured fatigue score
A checklist for schedule timing, travel and availability that avoids invented physical-readiness claims.
Small samples, shrinkage and the meaning of a provisional ranking
Why a player can be included after an appearance without receiving an established performance grade.
Expected points and win probability answer different two-point questions
Work through a toy conversion calculation without mistaking it for a universal coaching recommendation.
Special teams: why gross punting average is not net field position
Read returns, touchbacks and participation without inventing a proprietary special-teams grade.